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How FIFA Rankings Are Calculated.

 

How FIFA Calculates Team Rankings

FIFA rankings are an essential part of the football world, offering a snapshot of the relative strength of national teams. These rankings influence important decisions, including tournament seedings and qualification paths. However, how exactly does FIFA calculate these rankings? In this blog, we will dive deep into the FIFA ranking system, breaking down its structure and key components to help you understand how it works.


1. Overview of FIFA Rankings

The FIFA World Rankings are a list of national football teams, ranked based on their recent performance in international matches. The rankings are updated regularly and reflect a team's success in various competitions, including World Cup qualifiers, continental championships, and friendly matches. These rankings are important for seeding teams in international tournaments, such as the World Cup and continental cups.

Since 2018, FIFA has used a revised ranking system based on the Elo rating model. This system has been adjusted to be more dynamic and accurate in reflecting a team's current form and strength. The ranking is updated after every match, taking into account the results and the importance of each game.

2. The SUM Formula

The main formula used to calculate FIFA rankings is known as the SUM formula, which is a modified version of the Elo rating system. This formula takes into account a team’s performance in each match and adjusts their points based on the result, the importance of the match, and the strength of the opponent.

The formula is:

P = Pbefore + I × (W – We)

Where:

  • P = New points after the match.
  • Pbefore = Points before the match.
  • I = Importance of the match (explained below).
  • W = Actual result of the match (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss).
  • We = Expected result of the match based on the teams' relative strength.

This system ensures that teams who win in difficult situations (e.g., against a higher-ranked opponent or in a crucial competition) earn more points than teams who win in less competitive circumstances.

3. Key Factors in FIFA Ranking Calculation

Several key factors contribute to the final calculation of a team’s ranking. These include the importance of the match, the result of the match, and the strength of the opponent.

Match Importance (I)

FIFA assigns a value to each match based on its importance. More crucial matches (such as World Cup qualifiers or tournament finals) have a higher value, and winning these matches results in more ranking points. Here are the values assigned to different types of matches:

  • Friendly Matches (outside official windows): I = 5
  • Friendly Matches (within official windows): I = 10
  • World Cup Qualifiers & Continental Qualifiers: I = 25
  • Continental Finals (Group Stage): I = 35
  • Continental Finals (Knockout Stage): I = 40
  • World Cup (Group Stage): I = 50
  • World Cup (Knockout Stage): I = 60

This weighting ensures that teams receive more points for winning important matches, such as a World Cup knockout match, than for a friendly match played outside the official window.

Actual Result (W)

The actual result of a match determines how many points a team will earn. A team receives:

  • 1 point for a win, but the points are weighted based on the match's importance and the relative strength of the teams involved.
  • 0.5 points for a draw, again influenced by the importance of the match and the strength of the opponent.
  • 0 points for a loss, unless it’s a narrow loss to a much stronger team, in which case fractional points may be awarded.

While the actual result is relatively simple, the expected result—which takes into account team strength and match importance—is more complex and plays a key role in determining the final points.


Expected Result (We)

The expected result is a measure of how likely a team is to win, given their ranking and the ranking of their opponent. The formula for the expected result is:

We = 1 / (10^(-dr/600) + 1)

Where dr is the difference in points between the two teams before the match. If Team A has a significantly higher rating than Team B, the expected result for Team A will be closer to 1 (meaning a win is expected), while the expected result for Team B will be closer to 0 (meaning a loss is expected).

This calculation is crucial because it prevents teams from gaining too many points for beating weaker opponents, while still rewarding them for defeating higher-ranked teams.

4. How the Points are Updated

After a match, the points are updated according to the formula. Let’s look at an example to better understand the process.

Example Calculation

Let’s assume Team A has 1600 points and plays against Team B, which has 1400 points, in a World Cup match (I = 50).

  1. Calculate the Expected Result (We):

    • dr = 1600 – 1400 = 200
    • We = 1 / (10^(-200/600) + 1) ≈ 0.76

  2. Actual Result (W):
    If Team A wins, W = 1.

  3. Points Adjustment:
    P = 1600 + 50 × (1 – 0.76) = 1612

Thus, Team A’s new points would be 1612, and Team B’s points would decrease accordingly.

5. Why the Elo-Based System is Beneficial

The switch to the Elo-based system brought several advantages over previous methods. The main benefits include:

  • Dynamic Updates: Points are adjusted after every match, meaning the rankings reflect the most current form of teams.
  • Fairness: Teams are rewarded based on actual performance rather than just the result of matches. For example, beating a stronger team is valued more than beating a weaker team.
  • Flexibility: The system takes into account the importance of matches, allowing teams to gain more points for crucial wins and for matches in higher-stakes tournaments.
  • Global Representation: Teams from all regions of the world are treated fairly, regardless of the level of competition in their respective continental tournaments.

6. Impact of FIFA Rankings

FIFA Rankings influence several aspects of international football, including:

  • Seedings in Tournaments: The rankings determine the seedings for major tournaments, including the World Cup. Higher-ranked teams are seeded in the top pots to avoid facing each other in the group stage.
  • Qualification Pathways: In some cases, teams with higher rankings may have an easier path to qualification for international tournaments.
  • Perception of Teams: The rankings can affect public perception of a team’s strength. A high ranking may boost a team's morale and fan support, while a lower ranking might highlight areas of improvement.

Conclusion

FIFA rankings are calculated using a complex yet transparent system based on match results, the importance of those matches, and the relative strength of the teams involved. The Elo-based SUM formula ensures that teams are rewarded for their performance, with greater emphasis placed on victories in high-stakes matches. Understanding how FIFA rankings work gives fans insight into how their favorite teams are evaluated on the global stage.

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